Point spread betting explained
How a point spread works, what covering and a push mean, why half points matter, and how to compare spreads between sportsbooks.
A point spread evens out a game between a strong team and a weak one. Instead of asking who wins, it asks whether the favourite wins by more than a set margin. That margin is the spread, and it is one of the most popular ways to bet on American football and basketball.
How a spread works
Each side of the game gets the same number with opposite signs:
- The favourite gets a minus sign, such as -6.5. Take 6.5 points off its final score.
- The underdog gets a plus sign, such as +6.5. Add 6.5 points to its final score.
After the adjustment, the team with more points has covered the spread, and bets on that side win. The game's real winner does not matter on its own.
Say the home team is -6.5 and the away team is +6.5, both priced at -110:
| Final score | Margin | Home -6.5 | Away +6.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home 27, Away 17 | Home by 10 | Wins | Loses |
| Home 24, Away 20 | Home by 4 | Loses | Wins |
| Home 17, Away 21 | Away by 4 | Loses | Wins |
In the second row the home team won the game but did not cover: 24 − 6.5 = 17.5, which is less than 20. In the third row the away team won outright, so its +6.5 was never needed.
The price on a spread
A spread comes with a price, just like a moneyline. A common one is -110 on both sides. At -110 you stake 110 to win 100, so a 100 stake wins 90.91 profit and returns 190.91, and a 50 stake wins 45.45. The American odds guide covers that arithmetic.
At -110 each side implies a probability of 110 ÷ 210 = 52.38%. Together the two sides add up to 104.76%: an overround of 4.76%, which is a margin of about 4.55% of all money staked. It also means a side priced -110 has to cover about 52.38% of the bets that are not pushed just to break even, and more often than that to make a profit. What the vig is explains the margin in full.
Prices are not always even. Rather than move the line, a sportsbook may move the price, for example -3 at -120 on the favourite and +3 at +100 on the underdog.
Half points and pushes
Spreads come in two kinds:
- Half-point spreads such as -6.5 or +3.5. No final score can land on a half point, so every bet is either won or lost.
- Whole-number spreads such as -7 or +3. If the favourite wins by exactly that many points, the result is a push.
On a push the bet is cancelled and the stake is returned: no profit and no loss. With the home team at -7, a final score of 27-20 is a 7-point win, and a bet on either side gets its stake back. In a parlay, a pushed leg is usually dropped and the rest of the parlay is paid at the remaining legs' prices, though house rules vary; the parlays guide shows how the payout changes.
Half a point can matter a lot. In American football, many games finish with a margin of exactly 3 or 7 points, because those are the values of a field goal and a converted touchdown. That makes the difference between -2.5 and -3, or -7 and -7.5, worth more than half a point usually is.
Comparing spreads between sportsbooks
Sportsbooks do not always agree on the line or the price, so the same bet can be worth more in one place than another. There are two things to compare:
- The line. For a bet on the favourite, a smaller number is better at the same price. At -6 a 6-point win is a push with the stake returned; at -6.5 the same result is a loss. For the underdog it runs the other way: +7 beats +6.5.
- The price. On the same line, compare what each price pays. A 100 stake on +3.5 wins 95.24 at -105 but only 86.96 at -115.
When both the line and the price differ, it is harder to say which is better without estimating how often games land on the numbers in between. Take -6 at -115 against -6.5 at -105. Both win if the favourite wins by 7 or more, and both lose if it wins by 5 or fewer or does not win. Only a 6-point win differs: a push at -6, a loss at -6.5. If the favourite wins by 7 or more about half the time, -6 at -115 is the better price only if it wins by exactly 6 more than about 4 times in 100.
OddsKeepr lines up the spread and price at each sportsbook so you can see the differences side by side, and how to compare odds walks through the method.
Finding the fair price of a spread
To see the price without the margin, enter both sides of a spread in the no-vig calculator. With the favourite at -115 and the underdog at -105, the implied probabilities are 53.49% and 51.22%, which add up to 104.71%. Scaling them back to 100% gives fair probabilities of 51.08% and 48.92%, which are fair odds of about -104 and +104, or 1.96 and 2.04 in decimal.
Read as American odds: −110
Read as American odds: −110
Margin 4.8%: the prices add up to 104.8%.
| Outcome | Implied | Fair chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome 1 | 52.4% | 50.0% | +1002.001/1 |
| Outcome 2 | 52.4% | 50.0% | +1002.001/1 |
The fair price spreads the margin across the outcomes in proportion to their implied probabilities.
The fair odds guide explains why this is a useful yardstick when you compare prices.
Spreads in other sports
The same idea goes by other names. In hockey and baseball it is the puck line and run line, both usually set at 1.5. In football (soccer) it is called a handicap, and in Australia often line betting.
The Asian handicap works like a point spread, and Asian handicap 0 settles like draw no bet. A European (three-way) handicap is different: it adds a third outcome for a draw after the handicap, so it never pushes. Asian handicap lines can include quarter goals, such as -0.75, which split your stake evenly between the two nearest lines, -0.5 and -1. On -0.75, a one-goal win wins the -0.5 half and pushes the -1 half, so you are paid on half your stake and get the other half back.
If you only care who wins, the moneyline is the simpler bet, and totals ask about the combined score instead of the margin.
Betting always carries a risk of losing money, so if you bet, set a limit you are comfortable with and check that the sportsbook is licensed where you are. If gambling stops feeling like entertainment, free and confidential help is listed for every country under where to get help.