Puck line and run line betting explained
The puck line and run line are point spreads usually set at 1.5 in hockey and baseball. How they settle, how they are priced and how to compare them.
In hockey and baseball, a large share of games are decided by one or two goals or runs, so a spread that moves from game to game, as in American football, makes less sense. Instead, both sports use a spread that is almost always fixed at 1.5. In hockey it is called the puck line and in baseball the run line. What changes from game to game is the price, not the number.
How the 1.5 spread works
It is a point spread like any other:
- The favourite is -1.5. It has to win by 2 or more for the bet to win.
- The underdog is +1.5. The bet wins if it wins outright or loses by exactly 1.
Because no score can land on half a goal or half a run, there is no push. Every bet is won or lost.
Say the home team is -1.5 on the puck line and the away team is +1.5:
| Final score | Margin | Home -1.5 | Away +1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home 4, Away 2 | Home by 2 | Wins | Loses |
| Home 3, Away 2 | Home by 1 | Loses | Wins |
| Home 2, Away 3 | Away by 1 | Loses | Wins |
| Home 1, Away 4 | Away by 3 | Loses | Wins |
The second row is the one to remember: the home team won the game, but by only one goal, so the +1.5 side won the bet.
Why the prices look unusual
On a moneyline the favourite is priced at minus odds. On the puck line or run line it often flips. Winning by 2 or more is much harder than just winning, so the -1.5 side is frequently priced at plus odds, and the +1.5 underdog, which wins in most close games, is often at minus odds.
Take a hockey game with the home team -1.5 at +160 and the away team +1.5 at -190:
- A 100 stake on home -1.5 wins 160 profit if the home team wins by 2 or more, returning 260.
- A 100 stake on away +1.5 wins 52.63 profit if the away team wins or loses by one goal, returning 152.63.
The American odds guide explains that arithmetic, and the moneyline guide covers the plain "who wins" bet that the 1.5 line is usually set beside.
Quirks of hockey
- Overtime and shootouts. A game tied after regulation is decided by one goal in overtime or by a shootout, which counts as one goal for the winner. Where overtime and the shootout count, as they usually do, either way it is a one-goal win, so the -1.5 side loses.
- Empty-net goals. A team trailing by one late in the game often pulls its goalie for an extra skater. That can produce the tying goal, or an empty-net goal that turns a one-goal lead into two. Many -1.5 bets are decided in the last minutes.
Quirks of baseball
- The home team bats last. If it leads after the top of the ninth, the bottom of the ninth is not played, so it loses that chance to add runs.
- Walk-off wins. When the home team takes the lead in the bottom of the ninth inning or later, the game ends as soon as the winning run scores, so the margin is often one run. A walk-off home run counts in full, so with runners on base it can win by more.
- Extra innings. The run line normally includes them. Settlement rules for shortened games, and for changes to the starting pitchers, differ between sportsbooks.
So a home favourite at -1.5 on the run line has fewer ways to win by 2 than an away favourite, and prices often reflect that.
Finding the fair price
The two sides of the puck line above imply 38.46% (home at +160: 100 ÷ 260) and 65.52% (away at -190: 190 ÷ 290), as implied probability explains. Together they add up to 103.98%: an overround of 3.98%, or a margin of 1 − 1 ÷ 1.0398 = 3.83% of the money staked, explained in what the vig is. Scaling both back to 100% gives fair probabilities of 36.99% and 63.01%, which are fair odds of about +170 and -170, or 2.70 and 1.59 in decimal. Enter both prices in the calculator to check:
Read as American odds: −110
Read as American odds: −110
Margin 4.8%: the prices add up to 104.8%.
| Outcome | Implied | Fair chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome 1 | 52.4% | 50.0% | +1002.001/1 |
| Outcome 2 | 52.4% | 50.0% | +1002.001/1 |
The fair price spreads the margin across the outcomes in proportion to their implied probabilities.
Fair prices from one sportsbook show only its own view; the fair odds guide explains how OddsKeepr builds a consensus from many.
Alternate lines and comparing prices
Many sportsbooks also offer alternate lines, such as -2.5 or +2.5 goals, or a reverse run line that puts the favourite at +1.5 and the underdog at -1.5. These are separate markets with their own prices.
Because the standard line is fixed at 1.5, comparing it comes down to the price alone, with no trade-off between a better number and a better price as on a moving spread. At +160 instead of +150, a 100 stake on -1.5 wins 10 more; at -180 instead of -190, a 100 stake on +1.5 wins 55.56 instead of 52.63, or 2.93 more. OddsKeepr lines up these prices at every sportsbook licensed where you are and marks the best one, so you can see the difference at a glance. For comparing other markets, see how to compare odds.
Betting always carries a risk of losing money, so if you bet, set a limit you are comfortable with, check that the sportsbook is licensed where you are, and know that help is available if gambling stops being fun.