Draw no bet and double chance explained
Two football (soccer) markets built around the draw. How draw no bet and double chance settle, and how their prices relate to the 1X2 market.
In football (soccer) the draw is a common result, and two markets are built around it. Draw no bet refunds your stake if the match is drawn. Double chance lets one bet cover two of the three results. Both are built from the same three outcomes as the three-way moneyline (1X2), and this guide shows how their prices follow from it.
All the examples use one match, priced in decimal odds:
| Result | Decimal | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 (home) | 2.10 | 47.62% |
| X (draw) | 3.40 | 29.41% |
| 2 (away) | 3.60 | 27.78% |
| Total | 104.81% |
Each implied probability is 1 ÷ the decimal price. The total is above 100% because the sportsbook's margin is built in; implied probability and what the vig is explain why.
Draw no bet
A draw no bet market has two outcomes, home and away. The draw is taken out:
- Your team wins: you are paid at the draw no bet price.
- The match is drawn: the bet is void and your stake comes back.
- Your team loses: the bet loses.
Say the home team is 1.48 draw no bet and you stake 10:
| Result | Return | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 14.80 | 4.80 |
| Draw | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| Away win | 0.00 | -10.00 |
The same market is often listed as Asian handicap 0, and it settles the same way.
Where the price comes from
Draw no bet works like a 1X2 bet on your team plus a bet on the draw sized to pay back the stakes on both. At the prices above you can build it yourself with two bets totalling 34:
- 10 on the draw at
3.40, which returns 10 × 3.40 = 34.00 if the match is drawn, your full stake back. - 24 on the home team at
2.10, which returns 24 × 2.10 = 50.40 if the home team wins.
If the away team wins, both bets lose. So 34 staked returns 50.40 on a home win, 34 on a draw and nothing on an away win: an effective price of 50.40 ÷ 34 = 1.48 (1.4824 before rounding). In general:
Draw no bet price = team's 1X2 price × (1 − 1 ÷ draw price)
For the away team that gives 3.60 × (1 − 1 ÷ 3.40) = 2.54. A sportsbook sets its own draw no bet prices, so they can sit a little above or below this figure. Both routes give the same payout pattern, so whichever pays more is the better price.
Double chance
Double chance covers two of the three results with one bet. There are three markets:
- 1X: home win or draw
- X2: draw or away win
- 12: home win or away win (anything but a draw)
The implied probability of each pair is the sum of its two results, and the price that follows from the 1X2 is 1 ÷ that sum:
| Market | Implied probability | Decimal price |
|---|---|---|
| 1X | 47.62% + 29.41% = 77.03% | 1.30 |
| X2 | 29.41% + 27.78% = 57.19% | 1.75 |
| 12 | 47.62% + 27.78% = 75.40% | 1.33 |
A stake of 10 on 1X at 1.30 returns 13.00 if the home team wins or the match is drawn, a profit of 3.00. It loses only if the away team wins.
The three figures add up to 209.62%, twice the 1X2 total, because every result appears in two pairs. Without a margin they would add up to exactly 200%, so each double chance price carries the margin of the two 1X2 prices it is built from. A sportsbook sets its own double chance prices, so they can sit a little above or below these figures, and the margin in them can differ from the 1X2 margin.
Building it yourself
Two 1X2 bets can make the same position. Stake 34 on the home team at 2.10 and 21 on the draw at 3.40, 55 in all. A home win returns 34 × 2.10 = 71.40 and a draw returns 21 × 3.40 = 71.40, so you get 71.40 back either way: 71.40 ÷ 55 = 1.30 (1.2982 before rounding), the 1X price in the table.
What these markets change, and what they don't
Draw no bet makes a bet lose less often and double chance makes it win more often, and the price drops to match. The home team at 2.10 in the 1X2 becomes 1.48 draw no bet and 1.30 as 1X. None of these is better value by itself: they are the same three probabilities split up in different ways, each with a margin on top.
What matters is the price at each sportsbook compared with a fair price. Removing the margin from the 1X2 example with the proportional method (see fair odds) gives fair chances of about 45.43%, 28.06% and 26.50%. From those, a fair draw no bet price is the two team chances added up ÷ your team's chance, and a fair double chance price is 1 ÷ the two chances added up:
- Fair draw no bet: home (45.43% + 26.50%) ÷ 45.43% = 1.58, away ÷ 26.50% = 2.71
- Fair double chance: 1X 1 ÷ 73.49% = 1.36, X2 1 ÷ 54.56% = 1.83, 12 1 ÷ 71.93% = 1.39
The example's own prices, 1.48 draw no bet and 1.30 for 1X, sit below these fair figures: that gap is the margin. Fair prices taken from one sportsbook show only that sportsbook's view, and fair odds shows how OddsKeepr builds a consensus from many. A price above fair is an estimate in your favour, not a promise: any single bet can still lose.
The calculator below gives the fair chances for any three-way market; put them into the sums above to get the fair draw no bet and double chance prices:
Read as American odds: −110
Read as American odds: −110
Margin 4.8%: the prices add up to 104.8%.
| Outcome | Implied | Fair chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome 1 | 52.4% | 50.0% | +1002.001/1 |
| Outcome 2 | 52.4% | 50.0% | +1002.001/1 |
The fair price spreads the margin across the outcomes in proportion to their implied probabilities.
Settlement points to check
- Normal time only. Like the 1X2, these markets are usually settled on the score after normal time plus stoppage time, without extra time or a penalty shootout.
- Draw no bet in a parlay. If a draw voids a draw no bet leg, most sportsbooks treat that leg as a price of
1.00and settle the rest of the parlay on the remaining legs. The house rules decide; see parlays and accumulators. - Abandoned matches. Rules for postponed or abandoned matches differ by sportsbook and are set out in its house rules.
Betting always carries a risk of losing money, so if you bet, set a limit you are comfortable with and check that the sportsbook is licensed where you are. If gambling stops feeling like entertainment, free and confidential help is listed for every country under where to get help.